CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-09-22T15:21:41Z
## Message ID: 20230922-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2023-09-22T02:24Z.

Estimated speed: ~1026 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -31/36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001

2: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2023-09-22T07:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~1508 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 4/28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO A. The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2023-09-24T05:44Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-09-24T08:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001, 2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001, and 2023-09-22T07:12:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This simulation also includes the S-type CME with ID 2023-09-22T07:12:00-CME-001 which is not predicted to impact any NASA missions.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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